Mind-Set
An experience-based construct of assumptions and expectations about the world and specific domains. The mechanism through which Cognitive bias shapes analytic judgment.
Definition (from CIA Tradecraft Primer (2009))
“Experience-based constructs of assumptions and expectations both about the world in general and more specific domains. These constructs strongly influence what information analysts will accept — data that are in accordance with analysts’ unconscious mental models are more likely to be perceived and remembered than information that is at odds with them.”
Key Properties
Mind-sets are:
- Necessary — allow individuals to process an otherwise incomprehensible volume of information
- Unconscious — rarely examined and almost never challenged by those who hold them
- Self-reinforcing — confirming information is absorbed; disconfirming information is dismissed
- Sticky — resistant to change even when confronted with new evidence
The paradox: expertise strengthens mind-sets. Seasoned analysts may be more susceptible to mind-set problems than novices.
The Four Key Risks
- Analysts perceive what they expect to perceive
- Once formed, mind-sets are resistant to change
- New information is assimilated (sometimes erroneously) into existing mind-sets
- Conflicting information is often dismissed or ignored
Countermeasures
Structured analytic techniques are explicitly designed to surface and challenge mind-sets. Most directly applicable:
- Key assumptions check — makes the contents of a mind-set explicit
- Analysis of competing hypotheses (ach) — evaluates evidence against all hypotheses rather than confirming the dominant one
- Devil’s advocacy — directly challenges the consensus mind-set