Alternative Futures Analysis
A SAT that develops a range of plausible future scenarios by systematically varying key drivers and uncertainties. Prevents analytic fixation on a single projected outcome.
Purpose
Force analysts to consider multiple divergent futures, especially when key drivers of change are highly uncertain or interacting in complex ways. Ensures that policymakers are prepared for a range of possible outcomes, not just the most likely one.
Biases Primarily Controlled
| Bias | How this technique counters it |
|---|---|
| Status Quo Bias | Treats multiple futures as equally constructable; decenter the current trajectory as the default |
| Availability Heuristic | Generates scenarios through systematic driver variation, not memory retrieval |
| Anchoring Bias | No single scenario becomes the anchor; all scenarios developed in parallel |
| Overconfidence Bias | Range of scenarios makes explicit that the future is genuinely uncertain |
| Hindsight Bias | Multiple futures documented prospectively; prevents any single outcome from seeming inevitable in retrospect |
Relationship to Other Techniques
- Often begins with Brainstorming to identify key drivers
- Uses Indicators or signposts of change to monitor which future is emerging
- Complements High Impact low Probability analysis — one scenario in the futures analysis may be low-probability but high-impact
Applied in Cybersecurity
- Risk Analysts: explores diverse ways a risk scenario could evolve; helps assess rare but high-impact cyber events (Riley: SATs in Cybersecurity (2024))
- Vulnerability Analysts: explores how vulnerabilities might be exploited under different adversarial models